Betting Exchanges

Weekend In Play Odds on Betfair...

2010-03-15T10:39:00.006Z

Blogger is no longer allowing FTP hosting - if all goes well this blog will simply transfer to the new 'set up' and I will continue as normal. If it all goes horribly wrong - this blog won't be here after May 1 :(

Anyway -

Manchester Utd. did the usual at home with a 3-0 win to leapfrog them back to the top of the Premier Leauge. United had drifted to 1.42 on Betfair going in at half-time. In the second half there wasn't really any time to take stock as goals went flying in. Some backers picked up prices of around 70/1 for the 3-0 final score!

Fulham's recent Europa League opposition, Juventus, were on the wrong end of an incredible comeback. Juventus were 3-0 up at home to seemingly 'hopeless' Siena and were matched at Betfair's minimum price of 1.01 - with the draw at about 160.00 - when three goals from the away team then left Juve fans and players in shock. Juventus were 3-0 up in the first 10 minutes of the game which gave Siena time enough, but it was still a miraculous comeback for them away from home.

Another big comeback came from Birmingham City who were 2-0 down at home to Everton. The Toffees were just 1.09 to win before Birmingham found their feet and scored twice to end the game level.

Manchester City's visit to Sunderland ended in a draw. Sunderland scored early but made the mistake of sitting on their lead but did well enough trading as low as 1.13 - but City equalised through Adam Johnson to grab a point.

Bolton took a huge step towards safety by hammering Wigan.

Chelsea were as high as 1.55 to beat West Ham after a Hammers equaliser took the game to 1-1, not great odds! But it ended up thoroughly reflective of Chelsea's eventual dominance as the Blues put another three past their London rivals for a 4-1 final score.

Scrap the Offside Rule in Football?

2010-03-02T17:55:00.005Z

Sepp Blatter has recently been analysing hockey and how they got rid of their offside rule - amid rumours that football could follow suit.

Imagine, no offside, what would the effect be? Would teams load up the penalty area when in possession and play a long ball game? Would pace be sacrificed for strength? Would the effect be negligible but a lot less complicated for referees?

Hockey abolished its offside rule in 1998 and it has had a positive effect on the game.

I really believe that it will go one day - I think I even heard that great sage of football, Andy Gray, once saying that the rule should be scrapped.

Roll on a trial.

Everton Do It Again..

2010-02-22T18:08:00.003Z

Well those of you who thought Everton could pull off another remarkable comeback against Manchester Utd. as they did against Chelsea a few weeks ago, could have got odds of 22.0 on an Everton win and around 150.0 for the 3-1 score line.

Not sure that the 22.0 was that generous actually but I did not see the game so can't really comment. It puts Chelsea in a strong position with eleven games to go until the end of the season - as they took advantage at Wolves.

I think Chelsea have much the harder run-in though, so the league positions could well change again.

Champions League

2010-02-17T10:56:00.005Z

Happy with the results last night. I layed AC Milan for my seventh consecutive in running football profit. Basically I do nothing more than to watch a game and take a view as to which team is getting on top or looks less likely to win - obvious really - but your judgement needs to be right!

Manchester United were matched at odds as high as 9.0 on Betfair last night - don't forget they went down to a fortuitous deflected goal. I just couldn't bring myself to take that price as they were looking a little shaky at that point.

You could have picked up odds of 65 for a 2-3 score-line! So much for it being a cautious game.

In the top scorer market, Wayne Rooney has had his odds cut to 9.0 after being matched as high as 75.0.

In the other game Real Madrid are still strong favourites to turn the tie around. I for one won't be backing them at 1.6 to win the return leg.

FA Cup Bets.

2010-02-16T14:53:00.002Z

Going start laying off my FA Cup Bets. We started with Fulham, Newcastle, Birmingham and Spurs. Newcastle are out but remarkably three of the teams have stuck in there to the last eight.
So I am laying Birmingham back a bit and may do the same with Fulham depending on who they meet (Bolton or Spurs) in their game.

I will also take a look at match times - If Chelsea are playing before some of the others (doubtful) then I may wait a bit in case they get knocked out and prices come in further...

Pompey 24/1 on Betfair to repeat 2008!

What to do with John Terry?

2010-02-05T08:15:00.004Z

Let's face it - John Terry hasn't exactly covered himself in glory by having an affair with a player-colleague's ex-girlfriend. He has no doubt caused a lot of emotional trauma to his own wife, family and friends as well as affecting those he is involved with on a professional level.

But also consider that at least 1 in 3 marriages break down and 55% of men have had, or will have affairs or 'the odd fling'. That's why I have just had to laugh at the boos Terry has received at football grounds around the country...from that socially and morally perfect section of society - 'the football fan'. The statistics apply to them too - mind you many of them might be single - and with good reason. (I am a football fan too by the way....but have managed to find someone to marry me!)

If after 3.00pm today, Capello decides that Terry's actions will damage the team's effectiveness at the World Cup and that stripping him of the captaincy will help - then so be it - he is the man best qualified to judge the matter.

I just hope that he doesn't bow to the pressure of the situation - coming from an intrusive media and a hypocritical public.

Terry is in the public eye because he is good at football and he is therefore being slated for what he has done. Lucky then, that 55% of the male population aren't particularly good at anything, so that they can go about their private 'affairs'....in private.

Australian Open Tennis Review

2010-02-01T12:14:00.002Z

Roger Federer was his usual cool self when he beat Murray over the weekend. He went as high as 7/1 on the tournament market - when he trailed Davydenko in the quarter-finals. He was a set down, a further break down in the next set and looked like going two breaks down before he came through to win it.

Murray went as low as evens to win the tournament. Federer is only about 8/1 to win the 'Big Four' win this year. He has already been matched at around 80/1 to achieve this feat.

In the ladies final, Williams beat off a strong challenge from a gutsy Henin, who was unseeded for the tournament. Williams was as high as 24/1 on Betfair, when a set and 4-0 down to Azarenka in the quarter-finals, before coming back to take victory.

Henin traded as a low as 1/3 for the tournament in the Williams game.

NFL Bets

2010-01-26T11:21:00.002Z

I am not too disappointed with my recent NFL bets - at the prices I think we were on the right teams and any traders should have made money. The Jets were leading at half time, although you could most definatley see things swinging in the Colts' favour towards the end of the 2nd quarter - as Manning began to find his range of passes and pick out his receivers. The Vikings might easily have won, only losing in over/extra time and were level at the break.

I must remember to get my futures bets in early (after the draft) for Super Bowl XLV.

World Cup Bets

2010-01-22T10:53:00.008Z

I was just having a browse through the World Cup outright market. I try and snap up a couple of teams for the fun of it at this stage and then go in more seriously once the tournament has started - on match bet markets.

Whenever I look through the long list of teams every time the World Cup or the European Championships come around, I like to see what leaps off the page at me. Sometimes there might be one team - I think it was Germany last time around at about 20/1. Other times I might see four.

I then go through the opposition they face in their group and are likely to face in the next stage. I am no international football betting expert - and I don't delve too deeply into these bets - simply because 'anything can happen' before or during the tournament - it could be 'in-fighting', 'managerial desertion', 'players having mental breakdowns', 'terrorist attack' (god forbid) - so I am really just in love with the price.

The other point I try to remind myself of is that there is very little between the teams these days - you do get the odd 'thrashing' - but on the whole you shouldn't be afraid to take a big price. Remember Greece at 100/1 (from memory) for Euro 2004?

This year on Betfair for the World Cup outright, the prices that jump out at me are France at 17/1 as well as Holland at 17/1. To my mind the French could either go out in the first round or win it - depends if they want to play or not. They are in disarray from a team / manager perspective but who knows. Holland just seem too big a price.

For once I think England are about right at 6/1 - usually they are too short as the competition approaches as everyone gets on.

Hypothetically if you ran the World Cup 6 or 7 times in a row would England win one of them? Quite possibly. If you think they would win once if you ran it 4 or 5 times in a row - then you better lump on! But you need to ask yourself: 'Do I really want to be on England at 6/1 or rather Italy at 14/1 or Argentina at 11/1 or France or Holland at 17/1?

I badly want to bet an African team - just don't honestly believe South Africa will do it...Ivory Coast are too short for me. Ghana? Nigeria? I may wait for the African Nations Cup to end first.

Spain are the obvious favourites - they have surely got to go far - Brazil you never know. We should never forget the USA either - the fiercely competitive mentality that they have could make a mockery of the 80/1. Probably a trade rather than a bet though.

I am hoping someone out there can tell me I have got it completely wrong - not that there is ever a 'right' or 'wrong' - there is only 'opinion'!

This isn't an area of strength for me so it would be nice if someone came through for me with an African team or could tell me that England will definately win or that Spain or Brazil are good value despite them being short.

Just comment below and go easy on me....

I suppose we should also do a poll on whether or not Gary Neville is a "Boot-Licking Yes Man"! after Carlos Tevez' recent comment.

Super Bowl XLIV

2010-01-21T14:51:00.005Z

The Super Bowl is nearly upon us. NFL Football is game I love and hate...hate because there is little flow to the game - it is basically just a series of set plays. Love, because you can get incredible comebacks and there is also parity in the league...pretty much.

My best success for the Super Bowl was backing the Patriots for a decent stake when I lived in the US. That year I got 50/1 - I think it was probably the first year of that mini-dynasty that they had when they won it three times in four years from memory.

I have rather lost touch with the game being back in the UK but I thought I would give my very brief thoughts for the last four stage.

Indianapolis Colts: Too short at around evens. Won't have them. They should have too much in their locker for the New York Jets - but I would take the very defensive Jets at 7/1 at this point and hope for a big upset.

New Orleans Saints: Much the better pick of the favourites at 2/1 but probably not value - good aerial game could see them past the Vikings.

Minnesota Vikings: The best thing about supporting this team is that you get to watch 40 year old quarter-back Brett Favre week in week out. Incredible really.

The problem with the Vikings is that they are on the road for this one (vs Saints) and their road stats are just terrible. BUT had the Viking been at home, they might well have been a shorter price than the Saints - since the reverse is true of the Vikings' home record.

I would take 9/2 + here if I could find it and hope that the Vikings sort out their away form or the Saints falter under the pressure at home.

New York Jets: A little one-dimensional to say the least but plenty of teams have won the Super Bowl on good defence. Will they win? probably not, but I would take them at 7/1+ with Minnesota and hope for at least one upset.

Carlitng Cup and FA Cup

2010-01-21T10:30:00.003Z

I always like to look at teams who lose at home and have it all to do in the second leg - as long as the price is right....I did have a small bet on Blackburn yesterday. Being 1-0 down from the first leg and away from home for the second - in a competition like the Carling Cup - isn't as much of a disadvantage as people like to think. The Carling Cup isn't The FA Cup or the league and a lot of teams treat Carling Cup matches with a fair degree of abandon.

I though I had it in the bag with Blackburn ahead!

I wouldn't be betting Man City at Old Trafford for instance. United have to win that one and I am far from convinced by Man City's defence.

The only one of my bets that I have a real concern about in the next round of FA Cup matches is Birmingham who face a tough test against Everton. I won't be laying them back or anything as Birmingham are equally tough to beat - but Everton are seemingly out of the woods as draws away to Arsenal and Chelsea, as well as victory over Man City, would suggest.

7-2 to the Blues

2010-01-18T16:29:00.002Z

Just a quick follow up on Chelsea vs Sunderland - fantastic game with a score-line that was harsh on Chelsea! Took my son along and we got treated to a fantastic Chelsea performance - which have been all too rare of late.

Sunderland's defence was woeful, just terrible and I felt for Steve Bruce with his injury hit side - who must pride himself on a solid defence - from his playing days with Man Utd.

Got home and even managed to see our selves on Match of the Day (my son always wears a bright orange puffa to the matches in the hope he can pick himself out on the TV!). So it was a great ending to a good day.

Sports - Betfair markets

2010-01-15T18:19:00.004Z

Well the cricket hasn't gone quite how I thought it would....and after winning the toss as well! Anyway the FA Cup bets have benefited from a '50 year event' in that Man Utd and Liverpool (who I had layed anyway) are both out of the competition at the 3rd round stage.

The main price move as a result is that Birmingham have come in to around 40/1 on Betfair - winning their replay along with Newcastle. So we have all four picks still in the competition.

I was going to take on Liverpool and lay them this weekend but they are 5/4 for the win and their problems are already reflected in the price. Don't think Stoke are value either and a draw looks likely - but again no value.

I am going to Stamford Bridge this weekend to watch Chelsea vs Sunderland - the Watford game should have instilled some confidence but I am still not convinced we are playing the right formation. C'mon Carlo make me eat my words!

4th Test South Africa vs England

2010-01-13T09:49:00.003Z

It all looks good for England this week and they have a chance to go home with a rare series win. You can never right off South Africa but there record in Johannesburg isn't over impressive in terms of winning games. In terms of motivation both teams will be up for it - England have the chance of an historic series win, South Africa face the humiliation of losing.

I am actually going to lay South Africa at around 6/4 on Betfair. Had the 7/4 still been available I might have backed them. I just don't think at present they have any greater chance than England who have bowled the better. As long as England can deal with the altitude they should go well.

There is also the chance of rain on the highveld and although it tends to come late in the day - you couldn't rule out the draw - or pressure decisions being made due to time lost.

South Africa's preparation has not been perfect , with the farce surrounding Imran Tahir.and de Wet struggling for full fitness,

and although they have been very close to wins twice in this series, the fact remains that they haven't managed one.

No doubt South Africa will play for the win, they have nothing to lose, so the conservatism that seems to have plagued the team will be shed in favour of attack, but that could just as easily favour England.

As an aside, England have followed up their previous two escapes with nine wickets down, by thrashing the opposition in Durban and prior to that at Lord's - and the reported 'bowlers pitch' at the Wanderers won't harm Swann's or Anderson's chances, the latter having taken four more wickets than any South African in the series.

As a result I would rather be on England at around 5/2 (3.7) than South Africa at 6/4. In my view the draw would probably be the worst bet in this match - the current price on Betfair is around 15/8 - but in laying SA we have it on our side.

South Africa price moving from 7/4 into 6/4.

Racing's Big Freeze

2010-01-11T09:13:00.002Z

I have been twiddling my thumbs a bit over the last few weeks with no racing on. Also I have been thinking generally about changing the direction of this blog to cover all sports, previews, reviews and betting activity.

The reason is that there is only so much posting of results (something I don't like doing anyway) writing about meetings and so on that people can take. I for one don't actually particularly enjoy racing - much as I admire the jockeys and racehorses - it is one of my least favourite sports. It is simply a means to an end for me.

So from now on I am going to write about any sport or event that takes my eye - offer up a bit of betting advice here and there and see where it takes us.

Hope no-one is too disappointed.

The Shining

2010-01-08T16:27:00.005Z

I went to the local farm supply store today, to pick up a wood-splitting axe (maul) that I'd ordered a while back. The maul basically replaces a sledge-hammer and pin as a means of splitting logs. It's fundamentally a sledgehammer on one side of the head and axe blade on the other. Weight around 7-10 Lbs.

Part of the motivation was that a guy I know recently got taken to hospital with a shrapnel wound, after a blow with a sledgehammer caused a sliver of metal to fly off the pin and hit him in the chest at serious speed.

Anyway we, the family, have been completely snowed in for days now in Hampshire and we are all suffering a bit from 'cabin fever' - so what pops up on television last night, of course, the film - The Shining! Basically it's about a family who get snowed in in a remote hotel and dad slowly succumbs to murderous insanity - with an axe as his weapon of choice - it's a Stanley Kubick classic, most of you will have seen it.

So I had to laugh today when we finally dug ourselves out and went into the farm store - with three days of isolation on our faces, tensions high, snow everywhere...."er...I ordered an axe..."

The delivery hadn't arrived yet - due to snow....probably just as well.

Tournament Erosion - Betfair FA Cup Market

2010-01-03T18:37:00.003Z

Trading "tournament erosion" is a fun way to make a bit of cash. This has already happened for anyone betting my advised bets in the last post - or any contending team left in the competition.

With Manchester Utd. out of the tournament, the price has collapsed on any team with half a chance. There is usually a shock at this stage of the competition so you want to be getting your bets on near the beginning.

The prices for our bets now are:

Spurs: 7/1 from 12/1

Fulham 20/1 from 40/1

Birmingham: 66/1 from 80/1 (80/1 still available - Tough draw at Everton).

Newcastle: 100/1

You could easily equalise for profit now but none of the teams have an insurmountable challenge in the next round:

Spurs (h) v Leeds, Fulham (a) v Accrington Stanley or Gillingham, Birmingham (a) v Evertion, Newacastle (a) v West Brom.

Birmingham and Newcastle still need to win replays against Nottigham Forest and Plymouth Argyle respectively.

Anyway, it may pay to hang in there until the ties have been played.

FA Cup Bets

2010-01-01T15:59:00.015Z

I always have a few bets on the FA Cup every year. I generally pick between 2 and 4 teams. Historically I have kept away from backing any of the big four and of course in the last fifteen years or so one of the big four has won it every year bar one....the year before last when Portsmouth won it. Of course that was the one year that I decided to have two rather poor value bets on Liverpool and Chelsea to win it!

So you might do well to keep away from my selections - which are:

Fulham: I like what Roy Hodgson is doing at the club and they are a team that look as if they can play 'good cup football'. Currently around 40/1 on Betfair.

Tottenham: Love Harry Redknapp, not a great lover of Tottenham, but the team look 'capable' this season with a good squad. Whether they have the grit to get through the rounds remains to be seen. Probably my weakest bet of the four. Currently 12/1 on Betfair.

Birmingham: People are beginning to catch on to Birmingham's potential. The 100/1 + on Betfair has long gone but you can still get 80/1 with some bookmakers - the Betfair price is already in to 70's. I would have wanted 100/1 here but I will have a small bet at 80/1.

Newcastle: Not sure about this one. More of 'speculative saver'. But if they get to meet Premiership opposition you know they are going to have a point to prove. That in itself is not enough but they are playing with some spirit albeit in a lower league. Currently 125/1 + on Betfair. Might well lay this one back if they put together a sustained cup run.

Naturally none of these bets are likely to win - but that is the nature of backing at big odds. If you don't bet at big prices - you don't win at big prices. Remember Portsmouth would probably have been 66/1 - 100/1 at the start of the competition in 2007/8 season.

Roller Coaster

2009-12-30T11:19:00.003Z

Arsenal are back in to 4/1. Crazy few weeks - they've gone from 6/1 to 8/1 and now into 4/1. If you had enough money behind you - you could probably make a living trading the Betfair Premier League win/outright market!

Anyway it is certainly going to be an interesting second half of the season. Chelsea's defence looked shaky at best against Fulham and with Man Utd. getting some players back and Arsenal having a game in hand - it could be a fantastic few months of football.

What makes it even more interesting is that Tottenham and Man City aren't that far behind this year and although it's unlikely that they will win it - they could still influence the destination of the title.

Imagine if we had more parity in the league - with 10-15 teams fighting for the title....maybe salary caps and foreign player limits are the way forward!

Arsenal - Title Lay

2009-12-17T19:22:00.005Z

I don't normally lay - hate the liability. Nor do I normally bet on football in the Premiership as there is rarely any value.

I looked at laying Chelsea in the Premiership win market but on analysing the last few games that they have stumbled through - you could see that they've just been unlucky. They should have won up at Man City - keeper's mistake on Tevez free-kick and an uncharacteristic Lampard penalty miss wasn't the only squandered opportunity.

The game against Everton was again bad luck. They didn't deal with the balls in to their box clinically but the opportunities fell very kindly for Everton. A 3-1 scoreline would have been nearer the mark. Even the goal they conceded against Pompey was very unfortunate.

That kind of bad luck does not go on for more than 3 or 4 games in a row and you can't bet against teams that are just having a run of bad luck.

No, I am afraid Arsenal fans, it's Arsenal. I layed them at about 9/2 already and last week again at 6/1. The teams above them may drop more points this season against inferior opposition - but so will the Gunners. Where the top two will win games Arsenal will draw, where the top two draw, Arsenal will lose. Van Persie is a big loss and they are as fragile as ever.

It's not a big deal as a bet - doesn't take any real guts - but the price should already be out to about 9/1 after the Burnely draw.

I am actually a big admirer of Wenger's ability to mould young talent - he is the best there is I am sure and the style of football he has stamped on his team is just great to watch - but that is often where it ends.

Against Chelsea it was as if a bunch of teenagers had hijacked a game played by ten year olds - letting the youngsters have the ball for a bit to make them feel part of the game and then getting bored and scoring a few goals. But that's a well worn observation.

The other criticism I have is that I wish Wenger was a 'bigger man' - he just can't seem to bring himself to compliment other managers or teams after he has lost a game of football.

Maybe I am too emotionally involved with this bet! Perhaps I am laying the 'manager' not the 'team'! Wouldn't be the first time a bet has come back to land me on my backside.

Bhopal Disaster - Union Carbide. Dow Chemical.

2009-12-15T12:00:00.009Z

Those of you who are regulars to this blog will know that I occasionally go 'off track' and stray from betting related subjects when I find something interesting or outrageous - I should really have a seperate blog for such issues - I just need a break from pure betting commentary sometimes...

It is almost 25 years to the day that the Bhopal disaster occurred when water got into the machinery at the now infamous chemical plant run by Union Carbide. I remember it quite vividly now, the scale of the disaster and the suffering that it caused. The news reports, the pictures...and then, such is the nature of 'news', it seemed to be quickly forgotten.

The incident produced a toxic gas - believed to be five-hundred times more deadly than hydrogen cyanide - that leaked out over a city which was home to close to a million people. Survivors still recall how they fled with eyes burning, trying to shield their children, coughing and frothing at the mouth - all accompanied by unbearable pain.

Deaths from the immediate leak were officially put at around 3000 people but many believe the figure was closer to 10,000. Indian institutions reckon that the long term total number of deaths is in the region 25,000 with another 100,000 currently suffering or dying as a result of chemical poisoning.

Miscarriages in Bhopal are seven times the national average, with child deformaties also way above the norm.

A major incident was always on the cards. It even prompted one of Bhopal's journalists, Raj Keswani, to write: "Wake up people of Bhopal, you are on the edge of a volcano!"

The safety record at the plant was poor. Over a million dollars in cuts had been imposed leading up to the disaster, refrigeration to stabilise the potentially lethal chemical had been stopped on cost grounds, work forces had been cut, and, perhaps most damning of all, the warning siren had been turned off because it was continually being set off by minor leaks.

On the fateful night none of the four safety devices to prevent such disasters were in working order.

Fault was not admitted by Union Carbide or its parent company Dow Chemical - but then that is nothing new. Let's face it - admitting fault usually means you would be considered guilty in a court of law. The stance still remains that the disaster could have been an act of sabotage.

Union Carbide did accept 'moral responsibility' - built a hospital for the victims and agreed to pay 470m USD to help compensate victims but only if the Indian government dropped its law suit, which would potentially have cost the company billions.

As at 5 years ago half the money paid by Union Carbide to compensate victims is still in an Indian government bank account.

The biggest failing, however, is the fact that the ruined plant is still unsafe. Tons of toxic chemical allegedly still remain there - slowly seeping into the earth. The groundwater is contaminated - mercury, pesticides, industrial solvents - take your pick. The state government maintains that the site is safe - but has dropped plans to open it to the public.

Dow Chemical maintain that it is the government's responsibility to handle the clean up. This may be true but it is a pity that their 'moral responibility' does not extend to handling the clean up in view of continued death and suffering. They are, after all, the experts.

Warren Anderson, Union Carbide's chairman, was at least arrested on a number of charges when he visited the disaster site. But he skipped bail and headed back to the US - where he stayed. He is thought to spend much of his time in the Hamptons, Long Island.

Bhopal was nothing short of an act of terrorism carried out by corporate America. The issue of intent that seperates this disaster from say 9/11 really matters not. Both were tragedies - both had a tangible source and both to some degree were avoidable. If 9/11 was murder, Bhopal was certainly manslaughter - one of the charges originally brought against Warren Anderson.

But it would not be fair to simply point the finger at the US. It could easily have been one of any number of Western companies, some of whom, even with today's increased awareness and safety standards, pollute the foreign ground on which they are built.

Yet what is almost as tragic is that one group of people will be revered and remembered - while the other group largely forgotten. One group still mourn, whilst the other group still mourn and die. Had this disaster happened on Western soil you'd want to believe that it would have been 'handled' - that there would not have been a horrific legacy.

The failures surrounding the Bhopal disaster inevitably centre around money, legal liability, reputation, fear - but ultimately we have to ask ourselves do we care enough about people in the third world. If we don't care enough, then there is no voice and we are not going hold our corporations to account.

Another injustice comes to mind. We have thrown billions at the banks, billions at the war and we can't throw any money at nasty 'puddle' in India and get it cleaned up. People will still be dying in Bhopal long after the banks have recovered and long after the war is won or lost - only with many more casualties.

I am ashamed to admit than when I see news pictures of some of the horrors going on in the third world - I am as guilty as the next man - often thinking:- 'god how terrible ' but an instant later I may be grabbing a cold beer from the fridge or cooking up a nice steak. It was only because I heard a snippet on the news regarding the anniversery of the Bhopal disaster - that I remembered this tragedy at all.

The Hand of Frog...

2009-12-09T10:46:00.006Z

....incident - as it has become known - rattles on. Strictly speaking, yes, Thierry Henry did cheat by handling the ball in the lead up to the goal that killed off Ireland's world cup campaign - but it happened within a culture where 'getting away with it' is almost acceptable and has become part of the fabric of football. If the boot had been on the other foot are we honestly to believe that Ireland would have come clean?

This 'cheat culture' is not going to change anytime soon though some have called for players to be more honest. Even if it worked, would it really be good for football? Can you imagine a Saturday afternoon where up and down the country players voluntarily stop the game to report their minor footballing misdemenours to the referee? It would destroy the game.

Easy to say for me perhaps, I am not Irish and this was a massive game.

It is not, however, Henry who should carry the blame. Neither should the game be replayed under the current structure of football. Nor is the answer to have more officials behind the goal - who may or may not see an infringement or may feel forced to flag everytime a corner is taken due to the melee that ensues at such set pieces.

Video technology has to be the key. Perhaps if only to verify sending off offenses and incidents in the lead up to goals i.e. decisions that crucially affect a game. I have no doubt that if introduced it will come with it's own set of as yet unconsidered problems but it has to be the way forward.

Of course for Ireland the damage is already done and it is especially tragic for those players who will have retired by the time the 2014 world cup comes around. We often think of football as 'just a game' but we forget that it is much more than that for the players - it is their careers, and for some of them that means their lives.

Betting Bot - Results - End

2009-12-08T09:04:00.006Z

I am going to knock the bot on the head - after months of results and thousands of races we still hang around the break even mark. It is not surprising really. In-running markets are largely efficient on betfair - even if they are not always efficient. It is how you pick up on the inefficiencies that matters.

If I design something again it will have to be a bit cleverer than what I have now. I actually have another strategy that I know has been profitable year on year over the last eight years or so - but ideally it requires betting on every race, every day, so a bot might be suitable.

As always one needs to remember that it is not the bot that makes you money but what you feed into the thing. It just takes the grind out of your work.

Onwards and upwards.

In-Play Market Changes

2009-12-03T16:18:00.017Z

Most people I speak to believe that in-play trading on horse racing is getting tougher. The 'fast clickers' as I call them are a dying breed. These are the traders who simply back or lay the horse they think will win right at the end of the race for e.g. 1.05 or lay to small stakes at 26.00 - or whenever they are 'sure' the horse will win or lose...These guys are using SIS + Turf TV and their edge is being slowly eroded.

The problem is that now you have gangs of punters setting up at the racecourses with laptops or at least on the phone to their mates at home with the laptops - who are a second or two quicker than the satellite traders. Yet even the 'track traders' are competing with one another. This leads to people fighting for prices and value, which can only lead to everyone cutting each others throats - bar a few.

Backing at 1.05 becomes backing at 1.02 and laying at 26.00 becomes laying at 51.00. Soon the 'value' will be doing the opposite of the above - if it isn't already.

This is why you have to adapt in any market. I have changed the way I trade at least twice in the last few years. I am now forced to take more of a view earlier on in a race and / or do the opposite of what I think everyone else is doing! Luckily I think I have a strategy that is sustainable now for many years to come.

Yesterday's trading account is set out below. My biggest stake used was a cautious £50.00 and my liability was never more than £60.00-£80.00 for any significant length of time.

Cricket Trading on Betfair

2009-11-27T19:29:00.001Z

As you are no doubt aware I concentrate on horse racing on Betfair. There are, however, many other sports that you can trade successfully - football, cricket and tennis work well and have good liquidity. Rugby can also be good.

I don't tend to get involved too much in other types of sports trading but I know plenty of people who do. I know a couple of guys who live off football and another guy who lives off cricket alone.

Some of you might be interested in this cricket e-book put together by Betfair. For those of you starting out it will give you a great insight into the kind of things you need to be looking at to become a successful cricket trader.

It's free and you can of course pass it on to anyone you think might be interested.

Just click below.

cricketebook1.pdf