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Tuesday, 26 January 2010

NFL Bets

I am not too disappointed with my recent NFL bets - at the prices I think we were on the right teams and any traders should have made money. The Jets were leading at half time, although you could most definatley see things swinging in the Colts' favour towards the end of the 2nd quarter - as Manning began to find his range of passes and pick out his receivers. The Vikings might easily have won, only losing in over/extra time and were level at the break.

I must remember to get my futures bets in early (after the draft) for Super Bowl XLV.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

for Christ sakes show your method of trading. telling people you made so much money is not only juvenile but stupid. if you make money share your strategies otherwise just close down your blog coz it aint helping. K APISH!!

By Anonymous Anonymous, at 30 January 2010 18:10  

Amusing comment - thought I would publish this one! If nothing else it shows people out there the kind ignorance you have to put up with occasionally... Talk about juvenile and stupid...

I have never told people how much money I make - just as I wouldn't expect anyone out there to tell me how much money they make - as for divulging strategies...how about working out one for yourself? Take a look at Betfair or similar and go from there...

I'll pass on a hint - every market and circumstance is different and one strategy doesn't work in every situation...and for every situation more than one strategy will work...

By Blogger Betting Exchange Trader, at 1 February 2010 11:00  

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Friday, 22 January 2010

World Cup Bets

I was just having a browse through the World Cup outright market. I try and snap up a couple of teams for the fun of it at this stage and then go in more seriously once the tournament has started - on match bet markets.

Whenever I look through the long list of teams every time the World Cup or the European Championships come around, I like to see what leaps off the page at me. Sometimes there might be one team - I think it was Germany last time around at about 20/1. Other times I might see four.

I then go through the opposition they face in their group and are likely to face in the next stage. I am no international football betting expert - and I don't delve too deeply into these bets - simply because 'anything can happen' before or during the tournament - it could be 'in-fighting', 'managerial desertion', 'players having mental breakdowns', 'terrorist attack' (god forbid) - so I am really just in love with the price.

The other point I try to remind myself of is that there is very little between the teams these days - you do get the odd 'thrashing' - but on the whole you shouldn't be afraid to take a big price. Remember Greece at 100/1 (from memory) for Euro 2004?

This year on Betfair for the World Cup outright, the prices that jump out at me are France at 17/1 as well as Holland at 17/1. To my mind the French could either go out in the first round or win it - depends if they want to play or not. They are in disarray from a team / manager perspective but who knows. Holland just seem too big a price.

For once I think England are about right at 6/1 - usually they are too short as the competition approaches as everyone gets on.

Hypothetically if you ran the World Cup 6 or 7 times in a row would England win one of them? Quite possibly. If you think they would win once if you ran it 4 or 5 times in a row - then you better lump on! But you need to ask yourself: 'Do I really want to be on England at 6/1 or rather Italy at 14/1 or Argentina at 11/1 or France or Holland at 17/1?

I badly want to bet an African team - just don't honestly believe South Africa will do it...Ivory Coast are too short for me. Ghana? Nigeria? I may wait for the African Nations Cup to end first.

Spain are the obvious favourites - they have surely got to go far - Brazil you never know. We should never forget the USA either - the fiercely competitive mentality that they have could make a mockery of the 80/1. Probably a trade rather than a bet though.

I am hoping someone out there can tell me I have got it completely wrong - not that there is ever a 'right' or 'wrong' - there is only 'opinion'!

This isn't an area of strength for me so it would be nice if someone came through for me with an African team or could tell me that England will definately win or that Spain or Brazil are good value despite them being short.

Just comment below and go easy on me....

I suppose we should also do a poll on whether or not Gary Neville is a "Boot-Licking Yes Man"! after Carlos Tevez' recent comment.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

Some very valid points I feel. Personally, I think Italy at 14/1 is very good value, if you apply the same principle of running the world cup 15 times, would they not win 14 of them? I think it would be fewer than that.

Speaking to a friend about this, we both think laying as much money as possible on England at <=7.0 is the way to go; don't think any of us will actually put our money where our mouth is though!

By Anonymous Ben, at 25 January 2010 15:29  

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Thursday, 21 January 2010

Super Bowl XLIV

The Super Bowl is nearly upon us. NFL Football is game I love and hate...hate because there is little flow to the game - it is basically just a series of set plays. Love, because you can get incredible comebacks and there is also parity in the league...pretty much.

My best success for the Super Bowl was backing the Patriots for a decent stake when I lived in the US. That year I got 50/1 - I think it was probably the first year of that mini-dynasty that they had when they won it three times in four years from memory.

I have rather lost touch with the game being back in the UK but I thought I would give my very brief thoughts for the last four stage.

Indianapolis Colts: Too short at around evens. Won't have them. They should have too much in their locker for the New York Jets - but I would take the very defensive Jets at 7/1 at this point and hope for a big upset.

New Orleans Saints: Much the better pick of the favourites at 2/1 but probably not value - good aerial game could see them past the Vikings.

Minnesota Vikings: The best thing about supporting this team is that you get to watch 40 year old quarter-back Brett Favre week in week out. Incredible really.

The problem with the Vikings is that they are on the road for this one (vs Saints) and their road stats are just terrible. BUT had the Viking been at home, they might well have been a shorter price than the Saints - since the reverse is true of the Vikings' home record.

I would take 9/2 + here if I could find it and hope that the Vikings sort out their away form or the Saints falter under the pressure at home.

New York Jets: A little one-dimensional to say the least but plenty of teams have won the Super Bowl on good defence. Will they win? probably not, but I would take them at 7/1+ with Minnesota and hope for at least one upset.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

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Carlitng Cup and FA Cup

I always like to look at teams who lose at home and have it all to do in the second leg - as long as the price is right....I did have a small bet on Blackburn yesterday. Being 1-0 down from the first leg and away from home for the second - in a competition like the Carling Cup - isn't as much of a disadvantage as people like to think. The Carling Cup isn't The FA Cup or the league and a lot of teams treat Carling Cup matches with a fair degree of abandon.

I though I had it in the bag with Blackburn ahead!

I wouldn't be betting Man City at Old Trafford for instance. United have to win that one and I am far from convinced by Man City's defence.

The only one of my bets that I have a real concern about in the next round of FA Cup matches is Birmingham who face a tough test against Everton. I won't be laying them back or anything as Birmingham are equally tough to beat - but Everton are seemingly out of the woods as draws away to Arsenal and Chelsea, as well as victory over Man City, would suggest.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

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Monday, 18 January 2010

7-2 to the Blues

Just a quick follow up on Chelsea vs Sunderland - fantastic game with a score-line that was harsh on Chelsea! Took my son along and we got treated to a fantastic Chelsea performance - which have been all too rare of late.

Sunderland's defence was woeful, just terrible and I felt for Steve Bruce with his injury hit side - who must pride himself on a solid defence - from his playing days with Man Utd.

Got home and even managed to see our selves on Match of the Day (my son always wears a bright orange puffa to the matches in the hope he can pick himself out on the TV!). So it was a great ending to a good day.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

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Friday, 15 January 2010

Sports - Betfair markets

Well the cricket hasn't gone quite how I thought it would....and after winning the toss as well! Anyway the FA Cup bets have benefited from a '50 year event' in that Man Utd and Liverpool (who I had layed anyway) are both out of the competition at the 3rd round stage.

The main price move as a result is that Birmingham have come in to around 40/1 on Betfair - winning their replay along with Newcastle. So we have all four picks still in the competition.

I was going to take on Liverpool and lay them this weekend but they are 5/4 for the win and their problems are already reflected in the price. Don't think Stoke are value either and a draw looks likely - but again no value.

I am going to Stamford Bridge this weekend to watch Chelsea vs Sunderland - the Watford game should have instilled some confidence but I am still not convinced we are playing the right formation. C'mon Carlo make me eat my words!

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

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Wednesday, 13 January 2010

4th Test South Africa vs England

It all looks good for England this week and they have a chance to go home with a rare series win. You can never right off South Africa but there record in Johannesburg isn't over impressive in terms of winning games. In terms of motivation both teams will be up for it - England have the chance of an historic series win, South Africa face the humiliation of losing.

I am actually going to lay South Africa at around 6/4 on Betfair. Had the 7/4 still been available I might have backed them. I just don't think at present they have any greater chance than England who have bowled the better. As long as England can deal with the altitude they should go well.

There is also the chance of rain on the highveld and although it tends to come late in the day - you couldn't rule out the draw - or pressure decisions being made due to time lost.

South Africa's preparation has not been perfect , with the farce surrounding Imran Tahir.and de Wet struggling for full fitness,
and although they have been very close to wins twice in this series, the fact remains that they haven't managed one.

No doubt South Africa will play for the win, they have nothing to lose, so the conservatism that seems to have plagued the team will be shed in favour of attack, but that could just as easily favour England.

As an aside, England have followed up their previous two escapes with nine wickets down, by thrashing the opposition in Durban and prior to that at Lord's - and the reported 'bowlers pitch' at the Wanderers won't harm Swann's or Anderson's chances, the latter having taken four more wickets than any South African in the series.

As a result I would rather be on England at around 5/2 (3.7) than South Africa at 6/4. In my view the draw would probably be the worst bet in this match - the current price on Betfair is around 15/8 - but in laying SA we have it on our side.


South Africa price moving from 7/4 into 6/4.


posted by Betting Exchange Trader

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Monday, 11 January 2010

Racing's Big Freeze

I have been twiddling my thumbs a bit over the last few weeks with no racing on. Also I have been thinking generally about changing the direction of this blog to cover all sports, previews, reviews and betting activity.

The reason is that there is only so much posting of results (something I don't like doing anyway) writing about meetings and so on that people can take. I for one don't actually particularly enjoy racing - much as I admire the jockeys and racehorses - it is one of my least favourite sports. It is simply a means to an end for me.

So from now on I am going to write about any sport or event that takes my eye - offer up a bit of betting advice here and there and see where it takes us.

Hope no-one is too disappointed.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

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Friday, 8 January 2010

The Shining

I went to the local farm supply store today, to pick up a wood-splitting axe (maul) that I'd ordered a while back. The maul basically replaces a sledge-hammer and pin as a means of splitting logs. It's fundamentally a sledgehammer on one side of the head and axe blade on the other. Weight around 7-10 Lbs.

Part of the motivation was that a guy I know recently got taken to hospital with a shrapnel wound, after a blow with a sledgehammer caused a sliver of metal to fly off the pin and hit him in the chest at serious speed.

Anyway we, the family, have been completely snowed in for days now in Hampshire and we are all suffering a bit from 'cabin fever' - so what pops up on television last night, of course, the film - The Shining! Basically it's about a family who get snowed in in a remote hotel and dad slowly succumbs to murderous insanity - with an axe as his weapon of choice - it's a Stanley Kubick classic, most of you will have seen it.

So I had to laugh today when we finally dug ourselves out and went into the farm store - with three days of isolation on our faces, tensions high, snow everywhere...."er...I ordered an axe..."

The delivery hadn't arrived yet - due to snow....probably just as well.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

nice one, lets hope the snow relents soon, dont wanna be hearing about a massacre in Hampshire on the BBC.

By Blogger Eddy Dixon, at 15 January 2010 01:09  

....there might still be a massacre after my 4th Test analysis!

By Blogger Betting Exchange Trader, at 15 January 2010 10:26  

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Sunday, 3 January 2010

Tournament Erosion - Betfair FA Cup Market

Trading "tournament erosion" is a fun way to make a bit of cash. This has already happened for anyone betting my advised bets in the last post - or any contending team left in the competition.

With Manchester Utd. out of the tournament, the price has collapsed on any team with half a chance. There is usually a shock at this stage of the competition so you want to be getting your bets on near the beginning.

The prices for our bets now are:

Spurs: 7/1 from 12/1
Fulham 20/1 from 40/1
Birmingham: 66/1 from 80/1 (80/1 still available - Tough draw at Everton).
Newcastle: 100/1

You could easily equalise for profit now but none of the teams have an insurmountable challenge in the next round:

Spurs (h) v Leeds, Fulham (a) v Accrington Stanley or Gillingham, Birmingham (a) v Evertion, Newacastle (a) v West Brom.

Birmingham and Newcastle still need to win replays against Nottigham Forest and Plymouth Argyle respectively.

Anyway, it may pay to hang in there until the ties have been played.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

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Friday, 1 January 2010

FA Cup Bets

I always have a few bets on the FA Cup every year. I generally pick between 2 and 4 teams. Historically I have kept away from backing any of the big four and of course in the last fifteen years or so one of the big four has won it every year bar one....the year before last when Portsmouth won it. Of course that was the one year that I decided to have two rather poor value bets on Liverpool and Chelsea to win it!

So you might do well to keep away from my selections - which are:

Fulham: I like what Roy Hodgson is doing at the club and they are a team that look as if they can play 'good cup football'. Currently around 40/1 on Betfair.

Tottenham: Love Harry Redknapp, not a great lover of Tottenham, but the team look 'capable' this season with a good squad. Whether they have the grit to get through the rounds remains to be seen. Probably my weakest bet of the four. Currently 12/1 on Betfair.

Birmingham: People are beginning to catch on to Birmingham's potential. The 100/1 + on Betfair has long gone but you can still get 80/1 with some bookmakers - the Betfair price is already in to 70's. I would have wanted 100/1 here but I will have a small bet at 80/1.

Newcastle: Not sure about this one. More of 'speculative saver'. But if they get to meet Premiership opposition you know they are going to have a point to prove. That in itself is not enough but they are playing with some spirit albeit in a lower league. Currently 125/1 + on Betfair. Might well lay this one back if they put together a sustained cup run.

Naturally none of these bets are likely to win - but that is the nature of backing at big odds. If you don't bet at big prices - you don't win at big prices. Remember Portsmouth would probably have been 66/1 - 100/1 at the start of the competition in 2007/8 season.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

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