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Wednesday, 30 December 2009

Roller Coaster

Arsenal are back in to 4/1. Crazy few weeks - they've gone from 6/1 to 8/1 and now into 4/1. If you had enough money behind you - you could probably make a living trading the Betfair Premier League win/outright market!

Anyway it is certainly going to be an interesting second half of the season. Chelsea's defence looked shaky at best against Fulham and with Man Utd. getting some players back and Arsenal having a game in hand - it could be a fantastic few months of football.

What makes it even more interesting is that Tottenham and Man City aren't that far behind this year and although it's unlikely that they will win it - they could still influence the destination of the title.

Imagine if we had more parity in the league - with 10-15 teams fighting for the title....maybe salary caps and foreign player limits are the way forward!

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

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Thursday, 17 December 2009

Arsenal - Title Lay

I don't normally lay - hate the liability. Nor do I normally bet on football in the Premiership as there is rarely any value.

I looked at laying Chelsea in the Premiership win market but on analysing the last few games that they have stumbled through - you could see that they've just been unlucky. They should have won up at Man City - keeper's mistake on Tevez free-kick and an uncharacteristic Lampard penalty miss wasn't the only squandered opportunity.

The game against Everton was again bad luck. They didn't deal with the balls in to their box clinically but the opportunities fell very kindly for Everton. A 3-1 scoreline would have been nearer the mark. Even the goal they conceded against Pompey was very unfortunate.

That kind of bad luck does not go on for more than 3 or 4 games in a row and you can't bet against teams that are just having a run of bad luck.

No, I am afraid Arsenal fans, it's Arsenal. I layed them at about 9/2 already and last week again at 6/1. The teams above them may drop more points this season against inferior opposition - but so will the Gunners. Where the top two will win games Arsenal will draw, where the top two draw, Arsenal will lose. Van Persie is a big loss and they are as fragile as ever.

It's not a big deal as a bet - doesn't take any real guts - but the price should already be out to about 9/1 after the Burnely draw.

I am actually a big admirer of Wenger's ability to mould young talent - he is the best there is I am sure and the style of football he has stamped on his team is just great to watch - but that is often where it ends.

Against Chelsea it was as if a bunch of teenagers had hijacked a game played by ten year olds - letting the youngsters have the ball for a bit to make them feel part of the game and then getting bored and scoring a few goals. But that's a well worn observation.

The other criticism I have is that I wish Wenger was a 'bigger man' - he just can't seem to bring himself to compliment other managers or teams after he has lost a game of football.

Maybe I am too emotionally involved with this bet! Perhaps I am laying the 'manager' not the 'team'! Wouldn't be the first time a bet has come back to land me on my backside.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

I agree, I think Arsenal have probably peaked this season and will struggle to stay at the top of the table. Brave to lay them though as you never know, I have a feeling this season might go right to the wire.

By Blogger JS, at 22 December 2009 12:25  

AFC back in in price after the weekend - if they win their game in hand they'll be ahead of Man U! Christmas period probably crucial as usual....

By Blogger Betting Exchange Trader, at 22 December 2009 13:32  

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Tuesday, 15 December 2009

Bhopal Disaster - Union Carbide. Dow Chemical.

Those of you who are regulars to this blog will know that I occasionally go 'off track' and stray from betting related subjects when I find something interesting or outrageous - I should really have a seperate blog for such issues - I just need a break from pure betting commentary sometimes...

It is almost 25 years to the day that the Bhopal disaster occurred when water got into the machinery at the now infamous chemical plant run by Union Carbide. I remember it quite vividly now, the scale of the disaster and the suffering that it caused. The news reports, the pictures...and then, such is the nature of 'news', it seemed to be quickly forgotten.

The incident produced a toxic gas - believed to be five-hundred times more deadly than hydrogen cyanide - that leaked out over a city which was home to close to a million people. Survivors still recall how they fled with eyes burning, trying to shield their children, coughing and frothing at the mouth - all accompanied by unbearable pain.

Deaths from the immediate leak were officially put at around 3000 people but many believe the figure was closer to 10,000. Indian institutions reckon that the long term total number of deaths is in the region 25,000 with another 100,000 currently suffering or dying as a result of chemical poisoning.

Miscarriages in Bhopal are seven times the national average, with child deformaties also way above the norm.

A major incident was always on the cards. It even prompted one of Bhopal's journalists, Raj Keswani, to write: "Wake up people of Bhopal, you are on the edge of a volcano!"

The safety record at the plant was poor. Over a million dollars in cuts had been imposed leading up to the disaster, refrigeration to stabilise the potentially lethal chemical had been stopped on cost grounds, work forces had been cut, and, perhaps most damning of all, the warning siren had been turned off because it was continually being set off by minor leaks.

On the fateful night none of the four safety devices to prevent such disasters were in working order.

Fault was not admitted by Union Carbide or its parent company Dow Chemical - but then that is nothing new. Let's face it - admitting fault usually means you would be considered guilty in a court of law. The stance still remains that the disaster could have been an act of sabotage.

Union Carbide did accept 'moral responsibility' - built a hospital for the victims and agreed to pay 470m USD to help compensate victims but only if the Indian government dropped its law suit, which would potentially have cost the company billions.

As at 5 years ago half the money paid by Union Carbide to compensate victims is still in an Indian government bank account.

The biggest failing, however, is the fact that the ruined plant is still unsafe. Tons of toxic chemical allegedly still remain there - slowly seeping into the earth. The groundwater is contaminated - mercury, pesticides, industrial solvents - take your pick. The state government maintains that the site is safe - but has dropped plans to open it to the public.

Dow Chemical maintain that it is the government's responsibility to handle the clean up. This may be true but it is a pity that their 'moral responibility' does not extend to handling the clean up in view of continued death and suffering. They are, after all, the experts.

Warren Anderson, Union Carbide's chairman, was at least arrested on a number of charges when he visited the disaster site. But he skipped bail and headed back to the US - where he stayed. He is thought to spend much of his time in the Hamptons, Long Island.

Bhopal was nothing short of an act of terrorism carried out by corporate America. The issue of intent that seperates this disaster from say 9/11 really matters not. Both were tragedies - both had a tangible source and both to some degree were avoidable. If 9/11 was murder, Bhopal was certainly manslaughter - one of the charges originally brought against Warren Anderson.

But it would not be fair to simply point the finger at the US. It could easily have been one of any number of Western companies, some of whom, even with today's increased awareness and safety standards, pollute the foreign ground on which they are built.

Yet what is almost as tragic is that one group of people will be revered and remembered - while the other group largely forgotten. One group still mourn, whilst the other group still mourn and die. Had this disaster happened on Western soil you'd want to believe that it would have been 'handled' - that there would not have been a horrific legacy.

The failures surrounding the Bhopal disaster inevitably centre around money, legal liability, reputation, fear - but ultimately we have to ask ourselves do we care enough about people in the third world. If we don't care enough, then there is no voice and we are not going hold our corporations to account.

Another injustice comes to mind. We have thrown billions at the banks, billions at the war and we can't throw any money at nasty 'puddle' in India and get it cleaned up. People will still be dying in Bhopal long after the banks have recovered and long after the war is won or lost - only with many more casualties.

I am ashamed to admit than when I see news pictures of some of the horrors going on in the third world - I am as guilty as the next man - often thinking:- 'god how terrible ' but an instant later I may be grabbing a cold beer from the fridge or cooking up a nice steak. It was only because I heard a snippet on the news regarding the anniversery of the Bhopal disaster - that I remembered this tragedy at all.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

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Wednesday, 9 December 2009

The Hand of Frog...

....incident - as it has become known - rattles on. Strictly speaking, yes, Thierry Henry did cheat by handling the ball in the lead up to the goal that killed off Ireland's world cup campaign - but it happened within a culture where 'getting away with it' is almost acceptable and has become part of the fabric of football. If the boot had been on the other foot are we honestly to believe that Ireland would have come clean?

This 'cheat culture' is not going to change anytime soon though some have called for players to be more honest. Even if it worked, would it really be good for football? Can you imagine a Saturday afternoon where up and down the country players voluntarily stop the game to report their minor footballing misdemenours to the referee? It would destroy the game.

Easy to say for me perhaps, I am not Irish and this was a massive game.

It is not, however, Henry who should carry the blame. Neither should the game be replayed under the current structure of football. Nor is the answer to have more officials behind the goal - who may or may not see an infringement or may feel forced to flag everytime a corner is taken due to the melee that ensues at such set pieces.

Video technology has to be the key. Perhaps if only to verify sending off offenses and incidents in the lead up to goals i.e. decisions that crucially affect a game. I have no doubt that if introduced it will come with it's own set of as yet unconsidered problems but it has to be the way forward.

Of course for Ireland the damage is already done and it is especially tragic for those players who will have retired by the time the 2014 world cup comes around. We often think of football as 'just a game' but we forget that it is much more than that for the players - it is their careers, and for some of them that means their lives.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

I completely agree. Video technology has been held back for too long.

By Blogger JS, at 9 December 2009 19:40  

This post has been removed by the author.

By Blogger Betting Exchange Trader, at 10 December 2009 10:37  

Thanks JS, you would have thought that this latest fiasco would have spurred the powers that be into action in time for South Africa..

By Blogger Betting Exchange Trader, at 10 December 2009 10:40  

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Tuesday, 8 December 2009

Betting Bot - Results - End

I am going to knock the bot on the head - after months of results and thousands of races we still hang around the break even mark. It is not surprising really. In-running markets are largely efficient on betfair - even if they are not always efficient. It is how you pick up on the inefficiencies that matters.

If I design something again it will have to be a bit cleverer than what I have now. I actually have another strategy that I know has been profitable year on year over the last eight years or so - but ideally it requires betting on every race, every day, so a bot might be suitable.

As always one needs to remember that it is not the bot that makes you money but what you feed into the thing. It just takes the grind out of your work.

Onwards and upwards.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

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Thursday, 3 December 2009

In-Play Market Changes

Most people I speak to believe that in-play trading on horse racing is getting tougher. The 'fast clickers' as I call them are a dying breed. These are the traders who simply back or lay the horse they think will win right at the end of the race for e.g. 1.05 or lay to small stakes at 26.00 - or whenever they are 'sure' the horse will win or lose...These guys are using SIS + Turf TV and their edge is being slowly eroded.

The problem is that now you have gangs of punters setting up at the racecourses with laptops or at least on the phone to their mates at home with the laptops - who are a second or two quicker than the satellite traders. Yet even the 'track traders' are competing with one another. This leads to people fighting for prices and value, which can only lead to everyone cutting each others throats - bar a few.

Backing at 1.05 becomes backing at 1.02 and laying at 26.00 becomes laying at 51.00. Soon the 'value' will be doing the opposite of the above - if it isn't already.

This is why you have to adapt in any market. I have changed the way I trade at least twice in the last few years. I am now forced to take more of a view earlier on in a race and / or do the opposite of what I think everyone else is doing! Luckily I think I have a strategy that is sustainable now for many years to come.

Yesterday's trading account is set out below. My biggest stake used was a cautious £50.00 and my liability was never more than £60.00-£80.00 for any significant length of time.





posted by Betting Exchange Trader

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