BETTING-EXCHANGES.COM

As you are no doubt aware I concentrate on horse racing on Betfair. There are, however, many other sports that you can trade successfully - football, cricket and tennis work well and have good liquidity. Rugby can also be good.

I don't tend to get involved too much in other types of sports trading but I know plenty of people who do. I know a couple of guys who live off football and another guy who lives off cricket alone.

Some of you might be interested in this cricket e-book put together by Betfair. For those of you starting out it will give you a great insight into the kind of things you need to be looking at to become a successful cricket trader.

It's free and you can of course pass it on to anyone you think might be interested.

Just click below.

cricketebook1.pdf

Labels: betfair, cricket, trader

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

I have often wondered how many women are traders - not only on Betfair but in the financial markets. Probably not that many - especially in the city where the testosterone fuelled environment must surely mean that they number few. The question is though, would they be better than men?

Quite possibly it seems. It appears that in the area of DIY and home improvement - men might not be the masters after all. In a 'hammer-wielding' survey recently carried out at the Univesity of Massachussetts, women proved 25% more accurate than men - albeit with half as much force (no bad thing for those of us who have missed the head of a nail and hit our thumbs instead).

I urge all men out there to refuse women access to the tool shed / tool box - if this last great 'dominion of man' should fall to women - we will truly become obsolete.

Imagine a world run by women - less crime, less violence, less bigotry, less racism, less war....but probably less football....no, it wouldn't really work would it..

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

I've put together a few videos from last week - they pretty much follow on one after the other starting at the Catterick meeting. Looking at them I have just realised you wouldn't know that because the viewing /recording window is pretty small to keep the file size down - so the race detail is lost.

Although I know the races I was trading in - of course the names of the horses aren't visible! Put it down to an amateurish start. I will try and address this next time. But in essence it is the principle of quick profit I am trying to show here - so the race meeting and horse are largely irrelevent.

Under normal circumstances I would stay in the trade for longer - I just wanted to show what can be achieved in a short space of time during a race - for those that prefer scalping.

There are a few notes under each video. (Apologies, for some reason video windows seem be duplicated).




Catterick 14.10. I only managed to get just over 8.00 GBP matched here. But the horse never returns to the price at which I layed - so happy enough.




In the 14.30 at Exeter I back Royal Charm. I like the way he's travelling but this is a Novice Hurdle so there are often a few scares. He didn't jump too well three out and you can see that briefly reflected in the price. In the end I trade out before he clears the last hurdle as I lose a bit of confidence in his jumping.




This just shows a 'no trade'. Sometimes you just have to wait for another opportunity. 'Never force it if it isn't there'.




Kempton 14.50. Chosen Son is the horse I have layed. He got 'lost' at the start and never really recovered. I should have been in earlier on this one - though profit is virtually instant.




Exeter 15.00. Mahogany Blaze is the horse I have traded here. It's an interesting one because I trade out (again for the puposes of this video) and the horse nearly comes back to win. When I bet my horses I do it because I feel I have spotted something that tells me 'it's going to be hard for this one to win' or 'that one is likely to win' so the price does not always concern me - often I stay in the trade and take the hit if I am wrong.

I could not get the Kempton 14.20 to load. I layed a horse called Femme de Fer. This produced a 30.00 GBP profit.

Despite the early success above - from memory the day actually ended up scratch! By using reduced stakes for the videos and trading out of positions to show what can be done - I relinquished a lot of profit and with the end of the day not being productive to normal/bigger stakes - you can understand how this occurred. However I was prepared to accept this / set this day aside for the blog.. :)

If you decide to trade in play - it is a good idea to be consistent in your staking - certainly to begin with.

Labels: bet, trade, trading

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

I've been testing out various bits of screen capture software over the last few days. Some quite good - some not so good. I'll put up some vids maybe tomorrow or at the weekend. As a result of the performance reduction in terms of speed, I have cut my stakes right down as the last thing you need are things 'jamming up' just when you need to get in or out of a trade.

As a result, I thought I would post yesterday's in-play account - it is a good opportunity - because it shows what can be achieved to relatively small stakes of 25.00 to 50.00 GBP. It's all very well posting full stakes profits - but many of you starting out can't afford to risk what I can - just as I can't afford to risk what some other traders can.

Add to that the fact that I only bet in 20 markets out of a possible 35 due to the software testing and you begin to get a picture of what can be achieved with a small bank and a standard Sky TV connection which costs about 16.00 GBP a month.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

I have always had a passing interest in NFL football. I don't really 'love' the game as such - I prefer games that flow like football (soccer) and rugby. But being basically a series of set plays NFL can be a fascinating game at times.

I read bits about the game here and there and love the stories - like the Buffalo Bills who got to the Superbowl four times (1991-1994) in a row and never won. I occasionally manage to catch 'Americas Game' on Sky - with some grizzled old head coach and a few ex-players telling their stories. Great stuff.

From a betting perspective it's a statisticians dream - not that I am too much of a number cruncher - there a many factors to predicting the outcome of any sporting event: team character, state of the club or franchise, motivations, distractions, injuries, live games, announced retirements, stars playing against former teams, weather, must win scenarios, dome games....in NFL you also have the key pointspreads to take into account on the handicaps.

I was reading last night about weather and how it affects offenses and defenses. Most people think that offenses are helped by poor weather - because offenses effectively make the 'first move' and defenses are forced to react, making the second move. But history shows that offenses find it harder than defenses when playing on poor surface conditions - with low scores the order of the day. I should find out if that is the same in rugby and soccer too...

The other interesting thing I gleaned was on the injury front. Most people believe that the Quarter Back position is the key position on the field and the last player you want to lose to injury. This is not the case. Important though the QB is, it is the starting centre that you do not want to lose. He should be the NFL bettor's MVP! Their role is key and barely noticed by most - usually because they are not household names. The centre's rapport with the QB is critical and not knowing the small details about each others play can cost a team dearly.

Other important positions aside from the above two are the man in the centre of it all - the middle linebacker - those 50 yard breaks you see by a team are often the fault of the opposition middle linebacker. Yet if the first choice Middle LB is out - it rarely even moves the pointspread.

Believe it or not the final 'important player' is the kicker! A nervous second stringer is not who you want on the field to win you a ball game in the dying seconds.

Of course these important positions are not set in stone. A Receiver could be the key motivator for one team or a Running Back might be the outstanding leader on another. Yet as far as the 'paper' positions go, the four above are the most important.

I know a lot of Americans read this blog so it would be interesting to hear what you think...I am always willing to bow to greater knowledge..

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

I was going to sort out some vids on the pre-race trading and have been messing about trying different things over the last week or two but I have found that my computer slows down quite dramatically with the video software I was using under trial. I wanted to do 4 or 5 back to back but the files get too large. So I will have to stick to posting the odd one and stick to results, graphs, and giving explanations.

Profits are still quite small on the pre-race but I thought it could be useful to show what can be learned in a few months if you apply yourself.

Most of the trading I have done historically is in-play (more like 'betting' in play) and you would be suprised how well you can do without SIS - i.e. just a standard Sky connection. But you need to be able to read a race and trade somewhat differently to those with a high speed feed as you are at least 2 seconds behind fast satellite services. I have been toying for years with getting SIS although it means having to make an extra 30 quid a day to cover the monthly fee - probably worth it though....may treat myself for Christmas :)

I have never entertained the thought of recording in-play activities because it seemed pretty pointless without the TV pictures alongside. But I may do this as I have had a few emails about it. If nothing else it will show how good profits can be achieved with low stakes in a very short space of time.

In-play trading has the added advantage that you can get involved in every race because time before the off is not really an issue. On a busy Saturday pre-race traders can rarely trade every race because the races come too thick and fast. With in-play you can even get to the next race after it has started - if there is a clash - which happens quite a lot especially if Irish racing is on.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader