BETTING-EXCHANGES.COM

Following on from my last post - I have posted more results. As you can see they are very different. Here I am showing a profit - but I only beat SP across the cards by about GBP 137.00 compared to GBP 235.00 on the 21 September.

To my mind both days were pretty much equally good - it's just that in the first example I had nothing to show for it and in the second example I did.

So results can be deceptive - they naturally fluctuate and often trend. So a few days, weeks, or even months of good or bad results really means nothing for bettors in the greater scheme of things. So don't listen to tipster hype!

"We have now achieved 14 winning lays in row on UK horse racing!"

or in the States:

"Get my 500 star blowout system that has never lost on tonight's match up - we are currently 15-1 on College Football!"

My normal stakes would have lost me a lot more a couple of days ago and made me a lot more yesterday. It is actually very 'amateurish' to change stakes the whole time. But the trends are so strong in terms of streaks with my betting / trading that I could no longer ignore them. I'll know if it is worth it in about 24 months!

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

I have posted some results from yesterday below. I generally use much larger stakes but I am well above my results moving average (a bit of an experiment) for the month at this stage so plan to ease off until the end of September. It was actually a good day for me - even though I took a loss. I'll explain....

I keep an account where all I try to do is lay to match bookmaker SP. This tends to be easier on the lower priced runners and of course the lower priced runners often win. Yesterday was a good day for favourites so a lot of them won - which means that there was no profit showing in my account.

Note how I use the words 'no profit showing' rather than the word 'loss'. That is because I do not look upon the day as a loss. Across the cards I beat bookmaker SP prices to the tune of GBP 235.00. The 'loss' showing in my account for yesterday is GBP 587.90 - when to bookmaker SP this would have been GBP 822.90.

I would still have been very happy to have only matched bookmaker SP with my bets - losing GBP 822.90 because if you can do this you naturally still come out well on top in the long term.

Effectively I can look at a day like this as a very good days 'profit'! But realistically, this was one of those frustrating days where I did extremely well - but had nothing in terms of 'real profit' to show for it.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

I travelled down to Canary Wharf the other week to check out Canary Wharf Sports Exchange. They've got a serious set up there - dedicated to exchange traders - with 100Mb download/upload web connection through fibre optic and some serious 'flat screen real estate'.

I think that in-running is where the real money can be made - but you have to know your racing and be able to spot horses quickly that are travelling well or badly or simply coming from off the pace.

There are definately opportunities for anyone who wants to look into it. I am pretty sure that if you match up a good pre-race trader with a good in-running trader that latter would earn about five times more from the market.

I just wanted a day out and to check the speed difference between Sky, SIS and Turf TV for myself. Long term the 4 hour round trip will be expensive and probably makes it cheaper for me to get good satellite at home.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

In National Geographic the other day I read about swarm theory and self organising systems. It tells you how e.g. a school of fish is able to make quick decisions by making use of collective intelligence or 'hive mind'. Basically they use three fairly simple rules:

a) avoid crowding nearby fish.
b) swim in roughly the same direction of other fish.
c) stay close to nearby fish.

This results in the typical behaviour of a school of fish, twisting and turning almost as one. In this way schools of fish - move to avoid a predator.

But I have also read that when schools of fish or animal groups become massive - they eventually 'swarm' across the predator - even if those close to the predator move away - the sheer weight of numbers just ploughs on so as to make the reaction of the few insignificant.

Hmm....now on which Betfair market did I recently experience that...

In "Dance of the Money Bees" Train described how bees forage for food and how the degree of their agitation in front of their hive is directly related to the size or status of their find. Train made the analogy to describe money managers when they are excited by a stock and how they swarm like the hive.

It is fascinating but it is also unfortunate - in fact I think it is truly terrifying. It is how we operate within the world. It is nature, our nature. I believe that it is because of this inherent behavior that we will continue to repeat in some way, shape or form the catastrophes of our existence - like those that we have just experienced in the financial markets.

It is simply a matter of time.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

It was not a great week for me as I did have a couple of small bets that lost. But my focus is on sorting out my trading and I do at least have a 100% profit record in these types of trade...so far. Swing trades principles are relatively simple - but you have to be careful as you often get a few false signals on the market turning.

Depending on your attitude to risk you may start your trade before the market trend is exhausted - as the market trend is exhausted - or wait for confirmation that the market has turned.

Each strategy has its good points and bad points but in all three you need to be sure that you are at or near the end of the trend and if you can catch the swing in both directions so much the better!

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

Well it wasn't quite the return that many anticipated but to be fair to Kieren Fallon he didn't appear to have the best horses yesterday. Once his best chances failed to go in - you always felt that it could be a blank day for him. Still, it's great to have him back and needless to say the winners will come.

Had I been a layer - I would have been looking to lay all his horses on a point of value expecting them to backed in. However, a few of his rides drifted quite alarmingly on Betfair.

Ironically I did lay a horse yesterday, something I rarely do as I hate the liability. The price was around 10/1 and I had a fair lump against it. It drifted in running to 20/1 + after a poor start and I was a happy man as my decision was justified...until it came through to win in impressive fashion in last few furlongs.

All I was left with was the thought of the six odd Fallon rides I could have laid instead!

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

Our old plastic goal recently collapsed after only a couple of winters - so this time I decided to compare prices with pressure treated timber and brackets from the builders merchants.

It came to about the same cost-wise, so it shows what a rip-off that plastic rubbish is - and it gave me a great excuse to start building something else after the last project.

The timber should last about 10 years - whether or not my workmanship does is another matter!

My son and I set about it with a box of brass wood screws, zinc plated / galvanised mending plates and right-angled brackets. We doubled up on most of the brackets for strength and braced the corners for stability and after a short morning's work we had a solid new 12ft x 6ft goal. My boy was absolutely ecstatic.



It was actually quite 'fun' using Pythagoras's theorem (remember your 3,4,5 triangles ?) and Sine and Cosine rules for the angles - which helped with ordering up the timber. At last I have used something I learned in school - maths was never my best subject...

The net came from some online discount football website - complete with the George Cross - and there you have it.

Maybe I should start a part-time business - in the mornings or evenings - help clear the mind of all that trading!

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

For the purposes of simplicity I am going to make the bot results run from one complete month to the next. I have therefore removed the profit for the last week of July of 38.0 points and added the profit for the last week in August of 49.45 points.

This puts the total profit for August at 91.30 points.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader