BETTING-EXCHANGES.COM

Well the first month of results are out. From previous posts you may remember that I designed a betting bot to trade in running and try to take advantage of betfair market inefficiency and peoples' perception of what is happening in a race.

In total the bot covered 925 bets from 24 July 2009 to 23 August 2009 - I missed a couple of days due to technical glitches or because I forgot to turn it on - but basically every race was covered in the UK and Ireland.

The bot produced 79.85 points of profit for the above period betting according to the rules. So if you had been betting 100 pounds per point - which is kind of the benchmark stake - you would have made 7985.00 pounds for the period.

Not bad some might yell - and it isn't bad. So will I go out now and commercialise it and sell it online for 29.95 or is it 39.95 - or whatever the optimum 'sale price' is for all those dodgy systems ?....Er....no.

The reasons being that firstly I think of myself as reasonably honest! Also, believe it or not, 925 bets is not enough of a sample to prove this system - or many other systems for that matter. Mark those last words well for those of you who use tipsters or purchase betting products online with limited data in terms of results...

Add to that the fact that my results really only amount to 'one month' of data.

I am fully expecting to break even on this system after 12 months - as I mentioned before it's really just a bit of fun...an extravagance regarding building the software...but of course there is always a small chance that I have hit on some in-play market anomalies and could make over 750 points of profit during a 12 month period....but don't hold your breath!

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

Punters who backed the favourite 'Spring Quartet' in the 4.30 at Southwell today must have been pulling their hair out.

The horse completely missed the break - found itself behind by about twenty lengths - then made up the ground only to lose in second place by a neck or so. It went out to odds of a 1000.0 in running to boot...frustrating to say the least.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

I was trading with a colleague yesterday - really good bloke who knows his racing (nice that someone does in the trading community!) . It was late in the afternoon and he recognized the 1/3 favourite in the next race "Always Bold".

He said it was a terrible horse and never found anything when under pressure. Sure enough it really didn't get anywhere near winning. The benefit for punters with a real shorty, is that other horses are pushed out in price before the race and also during the race if the favourite at least looks in control for the first half of the run.

Victory Parade eventually came home to win (graph below) . Needless to say we didn't lay the favourite or back any other horse!

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

I was a bit up and down today - that was until the 19.00 at Roscommon. The market wasn't really 'swinging' as I recognise it - even if for a moment it looked as if it was about to break out and shoot up - it didn't quite make it. If it had taken off I would easily have been in for 400.00 GBP + on the trade as my initial stake was quite big on this one....pity!

Incidentally, this was a pre-race trade - but by the time I got to the screen shot it had just gone in play.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

As you may recall from previous posts - I started last week concentrating on pre-race trading and taking a short break from betting.

Until I read some of the other exchange trading blogs knocking around, I never appreciated how focussed you really need to be for trading. Having watched the market for a few days and really focussing on what was going on, I have begun to 'see' things I was never switched on to before. It's a bit like the Matrix! The numbers make more sense, patterns emerge. I am far from being 'Neo' - but it is only the first few days.

I have been cautious. The first day I managed about 50.00 GBP profit but on Friday I did a hell of a lot better - largely due to a good swing trade in the 4.15 at Nottingham where I managed over 100.00 GBP on the trade. I find swing trading easier than other types of trading - it is in the other types of market where there is no obvious trend - that I can run into difficulty.

I have thought about just 'piling in' to the swing trades on the few there are a day - but if you were to encounter a betfair technical issue or computer problem the risk is enormous and unacceptable really. So I will have to find a way of getting better at trading the other markets.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

By and large Betfair and other betting exchanges have efficient markets. In most sports, even in play, the price is generally right. For example in a football match if there is 17 minutes to go, the home team is 0-1 down, playing with ten men, with the ball in the opposition keeper's hands - the price you get at that time for backing either team or the draw is pretty much correct. Peoples' opinions count.

The only area where I want to put this to the test is in the in-play horse racing markets. You can see that at times in this market - it is not efficient. It is a market driven by high emotions. There is a short amount of time to make decisions on competitors often crowded into a small area of the racecourse.

The book percentage is jumping around all over the place. The problem most of us have is deciding which of the horses is at the wrong price or which horse is value at that moment in time? I for one have no idea!

I have developed a bit of betting software that will help me decide if there is an edge - at certain stages of the race. It will take a long time to determine this. The software has some good bells and whistles and there is nothing like it out there at the moment. In the main though, it will just place bets automatically on every single race of the day (something I do not have time to do) .

After a few thousand bets we will see how it is going and if there is some kind of edge or pattern. Then we move on to slightly different criteria and start again. It could take some time!

It is a bit of an extravagance I suppose because I am not expecting much - however it will satisfy a curiosity I have and we'll see if there is even the tiniest edge, to relaxed criteria, betting blind.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

I think most punters agree that trying to make a living using your own money can be stressful. People deal with it in different ways. After a poor period some 'meditate' over their losses telling themselves that the runs are nothing unusual - and they move on from there.

One guy I know finds solace in isolation - cold lonely places around -10 or -15 degrees at least (I don't think it really matters if that's Centigrade or Fahrenheit - it's just cold!)

The more spiritual might cause themselves physical pain - beating themselves with sticks or birch branches!

Some exercise (I used to do a lot of that!) while others turn to alcahol - which is relaxing but not always the best idea as far a your activities go the next day.

Personally I try to find some phyical toil to do - mowing, clearing or best of all creating or changing something. It takes my mind of everything except the task at hand.

My latest project is pictured above - unfortunately for my dog it is not a luxurious kennel for her! It is a wendy house for my kids.

It came out of someone elses garden in pieces - their kids had grown up - no instructions but then it really only comprised of seven major parts! The roof needed doing - all that terrible black roofing glue - gets everywhere. A coat of 'Forest Green' paint and it looks almost new!

I am going to start really working on my trading over the month of August - I never do this full time because the betting takes a fair bit out of me mentally. But it is something I would like to look at more in depth - another string to the bow - will be concentrating only on certain races to start with.

I will post periodically on how it is going...

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

Going off at a tangent here as I occasionally do....Sometimes after not such a good day - I 'down tools' and go on a murderous rampage - in the garden that is. I am plagued by dandelions.

I know they do some good and have medicinal properties but they have to be kept under control. Last time I cleared the whole freaking lawn of the things - sat down with a cold beer to admire my work - only for a gentle breeze to get up and blow a thousand seeds from neighbouring fields onto the lawn again!

They have to be the most perfectly evoluted weed! A foot long tap root that has to be completely removed to avoid regeneration- the seeds can survive under water for about 9 months - weed killer does not always get rid of them.

This year because of our puppy - I decided to use salt. This was quite effective - but listen to this - even as they shrivelled up in their death throes - they manage to transform themselves into puff balls! A last gasp attempt at procreation.

Talk about resilient. They'll be around a lot longer than us.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

Although on the face of it many would think that they have a good opportunity of drawing the required number of blue balls before drawing the losing red ones - the answer is: "No" - you should not take this bet.

The percentage chance of success works out at about 46.9% over the long term - so you will be losing approximately 53% of the time.

The odds, as my contributer (Cassini) pointed out, are important. The question was based as a bet between two people and assumed "even money" but if you were getting odds of around 6/5 (2.20) for the bet - then it would become marginally profitable.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

Edited Version: No prizes I am afraid! But I thought I would post this quick question on probability. I will post the answer in a day or two. See if you get it right:

A barrel contains ten large balls - seven blue balls and three red balls.

The blue balls each contain one-hundred pounds (winners!) wheras the red balls each contain I.O.U's for one-hundred pounds (losers!) .

You are offered a bet that you cannot draw two blue balls without drawing one red ball.

Should you take the bet?

posted by Betting Exchange Trader