BETTING-EXCHANGES.COM

This is the graph of Present Diamonds who ran in Ireland a couple of days ago and was an unlikely winner. Pennies were matched at big odds - but no one would be complaining if they'd even had just one penny matched at the top of the spike!

My feeling is that these 1000.0 odds in running 'spikers' are happening more and more - I guess it makes sense. The more people that come to Betfair the more chance of a radical opinion or two - anyway, I never tire of looking at these graphs!

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

Jockey Jamie Spencer is notorious for giving his horses 'bad rides' - basically he is a great 'come from behind' jockey and sometimes things don't open up for him and he gets the horse beaten. He did it earlier today when he got crushed against the rail through really no fault of his own and his critics were out in force again.

However, a few races later he popped up on Dickie Le Davoir at 11/1 in the 4.30pm at Pontefract. Ignore him as a betting prospect if you like but perhaps you'd do better to work out the 150-200 winners he'll ride in a year!

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

I have taken a snippet of some trading last week. I don't normally trade with such large stakes - but I am testing a theory and concentrating on certain races at present.

As stated before, I don't do much trading on my 'trading account' as I am fundamentally a bettor. But I had no bets on Friday so had some spare time. Here I was sure the market was going to turn and drift. I layed at 1.83 only for nothing to happen at all!

I waited and waited and I finally took my opportunity to get out of the position on what was not the best decision. The market did go out to about 1.89 but was soon back at 1.83 and below. So just happy not to be crucified on the trade.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

Lay tipsters are always banging on about how you should 'never lay at big odds' or 'all our selections are under 4/1' and so on. So does it matter at what odds you lay? Not really!

Simply put - if you are laying at big odds, you will have more winning bets and fewer losing bets - but the losers will incur large losses. If you bet at short odds you will simply have fewer winning bets and more losing bets - but the losers will incur small losses. Take your pick.

'Odds are odds' and that is all there is to it - in a true racing market odds simply represent the percentage chance of horse winning a race. So don't listen to all the nonsense dished out by dodgy tipsters. Bet or lay at whatever odds you like. Just try and find an edge!

posted by Betting Exchange Trader

I have often watched how the market reacts during a race to big outsiders going on to win. Although there is a fair degree of sound reasoning moving market prices on Betfair - fundamentally you are trading with or against other people and their emotions. This is especially true in live markets.

Many people are laying big outsiders to recoup losses or perhaps they want to achieve a high strike rate in their betting. But it usually goes something like this:

Race goes off - big outsider drifts in price or remains static.

Then comes the slow realisation that the horse is doing ok and the price starts to come in a bit but there is still no real belief that the horse will win.

Perhaps the horse now holds off a few challenges and keeps on plodding while a few others go off the bridle.

A bit of panic sets in and the price starts to jump around as a few people get out of their positions.

Then there is the sudden realisation that the bloody thing is going to win! The price comes crashing in, probably too far initially, but eventually ends up at 1.01.

A lot of people have been burned and a few are cheering!

posted by Betting Exchange Trader