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I don't normally lay - hate the liability. Nor do I normally bet on football in the Premiership as there is rarely any value.

I looked at laying Chelsea in the Premiership win market but on analysing the last few games that they have stumbled through - you could see that they've just been unlucky. They should have won up at Man City - keeper's mistake on Tevez free-kick and an uncharacteristic Lampard penalty miss wasn't the only squandered opportunity.

The game against Everton was again bad luck. They didn't deal with the balls in to their box clinically but the opportunities fell very kindly for Everton. A 3-1 scoreline would have been nearer the mark. Even the goal they conceded against Pompey was very unfortunate.

That kind of bad luck does not go on for more than 3 or 4 games in a row and you can't bet against teams that are just having a run of bad luck.

No, I am afraid Arsenal fans, it's Arsenal. I layed them at about 9/2 already and last week again at 6/1. The teams above them may drop more points this season against inferior opposition - but so will the Gunners. Where the top two will win games Arsenal will draw, where the top two draw, Arsenal will lose. Van Persie is a big loss and they are as fragile as ever.

It's not a big deal as a bet - doesn't take any real guts - but the price should already be out to about 9/1 after the Burnely draw.

I am actually a big admirer of Wenger's ability to mould young talent - he is the best there is I am sure and the style of football he has stamped on his team is just great to watch - but that is often where it ends.

Against Chelsea it was as if a bunch of teenagers had hijacked a game played by ten year olds - letting the youngsters have the ball for a bit to make them feel part of the game and then getting bored and scoring a few goals. But that's a well worn observation.

The other criticism I have is that I wish Wenger was a 'bigger man' - he just can't seem to bring himself to compliment other managers or teams after he has lost a game of football.

Maybe I am too emotionally involved with this bet! Perhaps I am laying the 'manager' not the 'team'! Wouldn't be the first time a bet has come back to land me on my backside.

posted by Betting Exchange Trader