BETTING-EXCHANGES.COM

I have always had a passing interest in NFL football. I don't really 'love' the game as such - I prefer games that flow like football (soccer) and rugby. But being basically a series of set plays NFL can be a fascinating game at times.

I read bits about the game here and there and love the stories - like the Buffalo Bills who got to the Superbowl four times (1991-1994) in a row and never won. I occasionally manage to catch 'Americas Game' on Sky - with some grizzled old head coach and a few ex-players telling their stories. Great stuff.

From a betting perspective it's a statisticians dream - not that I am too much of a number cruncher - there a many factors to predicting the outcome of any sporting event: team character, state of the club or franchise, motivations, distractions, injuries, live games, announced retirements, stars playing against former teams, weather, must win scenarios, dome games....in NFL you also have the key pointspreads to take into account on the handicaps.

I was reading last night about weather and how it affects offenses and defenses. Most people think that offenses are helped by poor weather - because offenses effectively make the 'first move' and defenses are forced to react, making the second move. But history shows that offenses find it harder than defenses when playing on poor surface conditions - with low scores the order of the day. I should find out if that is the same in rugby and soccer too...

The other interesting thing I gleaned was on the injury front. Most people believe that the Quarter Back position is the key position on the field and the last player you want to lose to injury. This is not the case. Important though the QB is, it is the starting centre that you do not want to lose. He should be the NFL bettor's MVP! Their role is key and barely noticed by most - usually because they are not household names. The centre's rapport with the QB is critical and not knowing the small details about each others play can cost a team dearly.

Other important positions aside from the above two are the man in the centre of it all - the middle linebacker - those 50 yard breaks you see by a team are often the fault of the opposition middle linebacker. Yet if the first choice Middle LB is out - it rarely even moves the pointspread.

Believe it or not the final 'important player' is the kicker! A nervous second stringer is not who you want on the field to win you a ball game in the dying seconds.

Of course these important positions are not set in stone. A Receiver could be the key motivator for one team or a Running Back might be the outstanding leader on another. Yet as far as the 'paper' positions go, the four above are the most important.

I know a lot of Americans read this blog so it would be interesting to hear what you think...I am always willing to bow to greater knowledge..

posted by Betting Exchange Trader