In Running Analysis of a Winning Outsider
I have often watched how the market reacts during a race to big outsiders going on to win. Although there is a fair degree of sound reasoning moving market prices on Betfair - fundamentally you are trading with or against other people and their emotions. This is especially true in live markets.
Many people are laying big outsiders to recoup losses or perhaps they want to achieve a high strike rate in their betting. But it usually goes something like this:
Race goes off - big outsider drifts in price or remains static.
Then comes the slow realisation that the horse is doing ok and the price starts to come in a bit but there is still no real belief that the horse will win.
Perhaps the horse now holds off a few challenges and keeps on plodding while a few others go off the bridle.
A bit of panic sets in and the price starts to jump around as a few people get out of their positions.
Then there is the sudden realisation that the bloody thing is going to win! The price comes crashing in, probably too far initially, but eventually ends up at 1.01.
A lot of people have been burned and a few are cheering!
posted by Betting Exchange Trader
