I was just having a browse through the
World Cup outright market. I try and snap up a couple of teams for the fun of it at this stage and then go in more seriously once the tournament has started - on match bet markets.
Whenever I look through the long list of teams every time the World Cup or the European Championships come around, I like to see what leaps off the page at me. Sometimes there might be one team - I think it was Germany last time around at about 20/1. Other times I might see four.
I then go through the opposition they face in their group and are likely to face in the next stage. I am no international football betting expert - and I don't delve too deeply into these bets - simply because 'anything can happen' before or during the tournament - it could be 'in-fighting', 'managerial desertion', 'players having mental breakdowns', 'terrorist attack' (god forbid) - so I am really just in love with the price.
The other point I try to remind myself of is that there is very little between the teams these days - you do get the odd 'thrashing' - but on the whole you shouldn't be afraid to take a big price. Remember Greece at 100/1 (from memory) for Euro 2004?
This year on Betfair for the World Cup outright, the prices that jump out at me are France at 17/1 as well as Holland at 17/1. To my mind the French could either go out in the first round or win it - depends if they want to play or not. They are in disarray from a team / manager perspective but who knows. Holland just seem too big a price.
For once I think England are about right at 6/1 - usually they are too short as the competition approaches as everyone gets on.
Hypothetically if you ran the World Cup 6 or 7 times in a row would England win one of them? Quite possibly. If you think they would win once if you ran it 4 or 5 times in a row - then you better lump on! But you need to ask yourself: 'Do I really want to be on England at 6/1 or rather Italy at 14/1 or Argentina at 11/1 or France or Holland at 17/1?
I badly want to bet an African team - just don't honestly believe South Africa will do it...Ivory Coast are too short for me. Ghana? Nigeria? I may wait for the African Nations Cup to end first.
Spain are the obvious favourites - they have surely got to go far - Brazil you never know. We should never forget the USA either - the fiercely competitive mentality that they have could make a mockery of the 80/1. Probably a trade rather than a bet though.
I am hoping someone out there can tell me I have got it completely wrong - not that there is ever a 'right' or 'wrong' - there is only 'opinion'!
This isn't an area of strength for me so it would be nice if someone came through for me with an African team or could tell me that England will definately win or that Spain or Brazil are good value despite them being short.
Just comment below and go easy on me....
I suppose we should also do a poll on whether or not Gary Neville is a "Boot-Licking Yes Man"! after Carlos Tevez' recent comment.
posted by Betting Exchange Trader
Some very valid points I feel. Personally, I think Italy at 14/1 is very good value, if you apply the same principle of running the world cup 15 times, would they not win 14 of them? I think it would be fewer than that.
Speaking to a friend about this, we both think laying as much money as possible on England at <=7.0 is the way to go; don't think any of us will actually put our money where our mouth is though!
